The conventional wisdom-- which seems to have even extended to vote-fraud schemes-- is that high turnout benefits Democrats and low turnout benefits Republicans, because socially marginal, poorer voters who are usually less likely to vote are a Democratic constituency. But this time the GOP seems to have turned it around mostly by mobilizing rural cultural conservatives. That was Karl Rove's big gamble, and it paid off.
As I said, the long-term downside is that these same people are also getting poorer and poorer. So far, they haven't heard anything that will convince them to make common cause with gays, abortionists, atheists and the like in order to vote for their economic interest (and I sadly suspect that for many of them, making common cause with black people may be the ultimate deal-breaker). We may have to see another generational shift before it happens.
Re: Condolences, Matt.
The conventional wisdom-- which seems to have even extended to vote-fraud schemes-- is that high turnout benefits Democrats and low turnout benefits Republicans, because socially marginal, poorer voters who are usually less likely to vote are a Democratic constituency. But this time the GOP seems to have turned it around mostly by mobilizing rural cultural conservatives. That was Karl Rove's big gamble, and it paid off.
As I said, the long-term downside is that these same people are also getting poorer and poorer. So far, they haven't heard anything that will convince them to make common cause with gays, abortionists, atheists and the like in order to vote for their economic interest (and I sadly suspect that for many of them, making common cause with black people may be the ultimate deal-breaker). We may have to see another generational shift before it happens.