...Though, like everything, it looks inevitable in hindsight. My wild-assed guesses in the summer were that nobody would get a significant convention bounce, Bush would pull ahead during the month-long McCain-Feingold gap through saturation advertising, then Kerry might come back.
What happened instead was that Kerry, who had already been leading, got a small bounce that lasted maybe a week into the McCain-Feingold gap; Bush pulled ahead in the gap through saturation advertising, then parlayed that into a rather large convention bounce (large horse-race-wise, if modest approval-wise) that dissipated following the debates.
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Date: 2004-10-20 03:38 am (UTC)What happened instead was that Kerry, who had already been leading, got a small bounce that lasted maybe a week into the McCain-Feingold gap; Bush pulled ahead in the gap through saturation advertising, then parlayed that into a rather large convention bounce (large horse-race-wise, if modest approval-wise) that dissipated following the debates.