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Nov. 1st, 2004
Tomorrow morning
Nov. 1st, 2004 11:22 pmPompous advice, mostly to Americans:
After all that, the US presidential race is so close that no poll can give anything like a believable picture of how it's going to go. Get out and vote even if you're in a supposedly safe state (either way). There are likely to be other races on the ballot that are, materially, more important to your life than the presidential one. And people pay attention to the popular-vote margin, even if it doesn't count.
I don't think I need to pretend to be a newspaper and write a fancy formal endorsement editorial for president; you already know, if you care (and I'm not sure why you would) that I want you to vote for John Kerry, and you can read more about it here and here. Mostly, though, I want you to vote tomorrow, and to not smash things or shoot people.
I think that something amazing has happened to the Democratic Party over the past year; there's a passion and a strategic acumen that was lying dormant before. That will be true whether we win or lose the presidential race, and I hope all that lasts past tomorrow, and lasts even as the fear and anger of this season fade.
Some progressives are already so discouraged that they're convinced the country is headed for ruin regardless of who wins. In a few cases they're hoping (or half-joking that they're hoping) that Bush wins the election, so that Republicans, not Democrats, will be discredited by our impending doom1.
The fallacy here is in thinking you know too much about what's going to happen. Political history is not so deterministic that you can credibly bet on multiple-cushion shots. I'm not convinced that whatever happens over the next four years is destined to ruin whoever is in power. The people we consider our greatest leaders are not necessarily the best people who ever had the job, but, rather, the ones who presided over the biggest crises, didn't screw up too badly, and helped make things better. Many people even thought (with perhaps excessive kindness) that George W. Bush had a shot at this category in late 2001; but he failed, and failed again, and disappointed us.
You can't necessarily tell who the really great ones are in advance. Sometimes they do rise to the occasion, and the history books, at least, are kind to them.
1Or, in a few articles written by deranged smart-alecks in other countries, so that the ruin will be so horrible that all Americans are duly punished for their collective sins.
After all that, the US presidential race is so close that no poll can give anything like a believable picture of how it's going to go. Get out and vote even if you're in a supposedly safe state (either way). There are likely to be other races on the ballot that are, materially, more important to your life than the presidential one. And people pay attention to the popular-vote margin, even if it doesn't count.
I don't think I need to pretend to be a newspaper and write a fancy formal endorsement editorial for president; you already know, if you care (and I'm not sure why you would) that I want you to vote for John Kerry, and you can read more about it here and here. Mostly, though, I want you to vote tomorrow, and to not smash things or shoot people.
I think that something amazing has happened to the Democratic Party over the past year; there's a passion and a strategic acumen that was lying dormant before. That will be true whether we win or lose the presidential race, and I hope all that lasts past tomorrow, and lasts even as the fear and anger of this season fade.
Some progressives are already so discouraged that they're convinced the country is headed for ruin regardless of who wins. In a few cases they're hoping (or half-joking that they're hoping) that Bush wins the election, so that Republicans, not Democrats, will be discredited by our impending doom1.
The fallacy here is in thinking you know too much about what's going to happen. Political history is not so deterministic that you can credibly bet on multiple-cushion shots. I'm not convinced that whatever happens over the next four years is destined to ruin whoever is in power. The people we consider our greatest leaders are not necessarily the best people who ever had the job, but, rather, the ones who presided over the biggest crises, didn't screw up too badly, and helped make things better. Many people even thought (with perhaps excessive kindness) that George W. Bush had a shot at this category in late 2001; but he failed, and failed again, and disappointed us.
You can't necessarily tell who the really great ones are in advance. Sometimes they do rise to the occasion, and the history books, at least, are kind to them.
1Or, in a few articles written by deranged smart-alecks in other countries, so that the ruin will be so horrible that all Americans are duly punished for their collective sins.