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The "moral values" myth
Dec. 6th, 2004 09:25 amThis Washington Post article is pretty good: how the notion that "moral values" voters swung the 2004 election became conventional wisdom even though there's not much evidence that it's true.
People who vote on cultural conservative hot-button issues have been part of the Republican alliance for a long time and will probably continue to be so in the future, and they turned out to vote in 2004. But there's circumstantial evidence that they did in earlier elections as well. Bush's biggest gains in 2004 were not among Karl Rove's famous missing evangelicals, but among affluent suburbanites, probably attracted by the tough-on-terrorists line and tax cuts. The apparent "moral values" groundswell was an artifact of an unprecedented exit poll question, followed by pundits parroting each other.
People who vote on cultural conservative hot-button issues have been part of the Republican alliance for a long time and will probably continue to be so in the future, and they turned out to vote in 2004. But there's circumstantial evidence that they did in earlier elections as well. Bush's biggest gains in 2004 were not among Karl Rove's famous missing evangelicals, but among affluent suburbanites, probably attracted by the tough-on-terrorists line and tax cuts. The apparent "moral values" groundswell was an artifact of an unprecedented exit poll question, followed by pundits parroting each other.