About doomsaying: There is a fine line to walk when the topic is something potentially catastrophic, such as overpopulation, global warming, nuclear war, nuclear terrorism, etc. On the one hand, if you overemphasize the threat and the dire consequences of inaction, you sound like a crank, and people dismiss what you are sayin. On the other hand, if you are too nuanced about it---constantly bring up the uncertainties---we don't know for sure, things might be bad, but maybe not, we can't know what the future holds, etc.---then that just encourages people to feel comfortable doing nothing.
The other problem with acting to prevent catastrophes is the bad incentive structure. The benefits of preventative measures fall on everyone, while the costs fall on those who act responsibly. The incentive structure for bad behavior is the opposite: the benefits come to the irresponsible, while the costs are born by everyone.
Yet another problem with doomsaying is that skeptics always have inductive reasoning on their side: All predictions of doom in the past have all been proven wrong, so by induction we can assume that modern doomsayers are wrong, as well.
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Miscellaneous comments about Asimov, Doomsaying
Date: 2006-04-02 08:59 am (UTC)About doomsaying: There is a fine line to walk when the topic is something potentially catastrophic, such as overpopulation, global warming, nuclear war, nuclear terrorism, etc. On the one hand, if you overemphasize the threat and the dire consequences of inaction, you sound like a crank, and people dismiss what you are sayin. On the other hand, if you are too nuanced about it---constantly bring up the uncertainties---we don't know for sure, things might be bad, but maybe not, we can't know what the future holds, etc.---then that just encourages people to feel comfortable doing nothing.
The other problem with acting to prevent catastrophes is the bad incentive structure. The benefits of preventative measures fall on everyone, while the costs fall on those who act responsibly. The incentive structure for bad behavior is the opposite: the benefits come to the irresponsible, while the costs are born by everyone.
Yet another problem with doomsaying is that skeptics always have inductive reasoning on their side: All predictions of doom in the past have all been proven wrong, so by induction we can assume that modern doomsayers are wrong, as well.