Aaaand the horse race.
Oct. 26th, 2004 10:03 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
mmcirvinHere's electoral-vote.com's trend chart, and spacerad.com's.
Obviously, nobody can say who is really ahead right now. The trend beneath the noise looks to be toward Kerry (that Bushward blip around Oct. 21 in the otherwise smoother spacerad.com aggregation was because of a methodological change). ...But that may not matter, because it looks to be so close that statistical fluctuations, systematic error and dirty tricks could easily trump the effect of any trend over the next week.
I gather, mostly from secondhand sources, that there is a theme in the mainstream media to the effect that Bush is ahead and expected to win. I certainly see some of that in the increasingly Republican-leaning Washington Post, which is the main source of mainstream media that I actually read. I hope nobody is calling this a landslide in the making.
Obviously, nobody can say who is really ahead right now. The trend beneath the noise looks to be toward Kerry (that Bushward blip around Oct. 21 in the otherwise smoother spacerad.com aggregation was because of a methodological change). ...But that may not matter, because it looks to be so close that statistical fluctuations, systematic error and dirty tricks could easily trump the effect of any trend over the next week.
I gather, mostly from secondhand sources, that there is a theme in the mainstream media to the effect that Bush is ahead and expected to win. I certainly see some of that in the increasingly Republican-leaning Washington Post, which is the main source of mainstream media that I actually read. I hope nobody is calling this a landslide in the making.