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Rutan's SpaceShip One is scheduled to make its first attempt at 100 kilometers today. It's not the official X-Prize trial, since they won't be carrying the passenger-equivalent ballast or going for a two-week turnaround, but it's an impressive prelude and a clear indication that they're serious. (A flight to about 60 km has already happened, so we know the system basically works.)
This whole effort fascinates me. It's important to keep in mind that a 100 km suborbital hop is technically a long way from an orbital flight; the rocket can be much smaller and, even more importantly, you can use relatively simple and light reentry shielding. Scaled Composites isn't going to be taking over manned spaceflight from the government space agencies any time soon. But, from here, it's possible to see a world in which something like this happens.
And, though many space enthusiasts will probably not agree with me here, it does call into question the wisdom of continuing to expend money, effort, and, occasionally, lives on national manned spaceflight programs. The current efforts to put astronauts in orbit don't serve much of a purpose besides demonstrating that they can still put astronauts in orbit. The initiatives to put people back on the Moon and send them to Mars have theoretical potential for scientific payoff, but they're not funded at anything like the exorbitant rate that would be necessary to actually reach the claimed goals.
If the reason we put people in space is to keep alive the poetics of spaceflight, or simply because people want to go into space (both of which I regard as legitimate reasons), maybe it's better to leave the main effort to private individuals and firms who are willing to put up the money and take interesting chances, and reorient NASA's manned spaceflight efforts around technology R&D, like NASA's current role in aviation. The cost would be a few decades' delay in reaching this or that milestone in manned space travel, but when they do happen, the programs might be far more practical and sustainable than what we've got. Meanwhile, governments can continue the unmanned scientific exploration of space, at which, on the whole, they have been fantastically successful.
This whole effort fascinates me. It's important to keep in mind that a 100 km suborbital hop is technically a long way from an orbital flight; the rocket can be much smaller and, even more importantly, you can use relatively simple and light reentry shielding. Scaled Composites isn't going to be taking over manned spaceflight from the government space agencies any time soon. But, from here, it's possible to see a world in which something like this happens.
And, though many space enthusiasts will probably not agree with me here, it does call into question the wisdom of continuing to expend money, effort, and, occasionally, lives on national manned spaceflight programs. The current efforts to put astronauts in orbit don't serve much of a purpose besides demonstrating that they can still put astronauts in orbit. The initiatives to put people back on the Moon and send them to Mars have theoretical potential for scientific payoff, but they're not funded at anything like the exorbitant rate that would be necessary to actually reach the claimed goals.
If the reason we put people in space is to keep alive the poetics of spaceflight, or simply because people want to go into space (both of which I regard as legitimate reasons), maybe it's better to leave the main effort to private individuals and firms who are willing to put up the money and take interesting chances, and reorient NASA's manned spaceflight efforts around technology R&D, like NASA's current role in aviation. The cost would be a few decades' delay in reaching this or that milestone in manned space travel, but when they do happen, the programs might be far more practical and sustainable than what we've got. Meanwhile, governments can continue the unmanned scientific exploration of space, at which, on the whole, they have been fantastically successful.