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Election notes
Nov. 4th, 2008 11:26 pm1. My revenge on Steve Doocy is now complete.
2. Earlier today, I posted an electoral vote prediction over on Unfogged. I didn't have a lot of confidence in it but decided to go out on a limb. It looks like it may end up almost exactly correct, maybe just slightly low. I did this by the eerie psychic method of reading state poll aggregator sites like RCP and election.princeton.edu and electoral-vote.com and 538 and saying more or less what they all said. They were all right!
I'd become convinced that when the election isn't projected to be really close, speculating about Bradley Effects, etc. is for chumps, and this seems to be the case. They'd all pretty much nailed the outcome in 2004, too (as long as they didn't tweak the results with ad hoc assumptions), even though everyone now remembers the stupid exit polls that got it wrong.
2. Earlier today, I posted an electoral vote prediction over on Unfogged. I didn't have a lot of confidence in it but decided to go out on a limb. It looks like it may end up almost exactly correct, maybe just slightly low. I did this by the eerie psychic method of reading state poll aggregator sites like RCP and election.princeton.edu and electoral-vote.com and 538 and saying more or less what they all said. They were all right!
I'd become convinced that when the election isn't projected to be really close, speculating about Bradley Effects, etc. is for chumps, and this seems to be the case. They'd all pretty much nailed the outcome in 2004, too (as long as they didn't tweak the results with ad hoc assumptions), even though everyone now remembers the stupid exit polls that got it wrong.