Election notes

[mmcirvin]

1. My revenge on Steve Doocy is now complete.

2. Earlier today, I posted an electoral vote prediction over on Unfogged. I didn't have a lot of confidence in it but decided to go out on a limb. It looks like it may end up almost exactly correct, maybe just slightly low. I did this by the eerie psychic method of reading state poll aggregator sites like RCP and election.princeton.edu and electoral-vote.com and 538 and saying more or less what they all said. They were all right!

I'd become convinced that when the election isn't projected to be really close, speculating about Bradley Effects, etc. is for chumps, and this seems to be the case. They'd all pretty much nailed the outcome in 2004, too (as long as they didn't tweak the results with ad hoc assumptions), even though everyone now remembers the stupid exit polls that got it wrong.

Comments

[partiallyclips.livejournal.com]

For 22 years, Matt carefully plotted against the fake-TV-news tool who did the "isn't it stupid and lame how smart you are?" story.

It was all worth it.

[mmcirvin.livejournal.com]

Of course it's not true. President Obama is the best thing that ever happened to Fox News, and Rush Limbaugh too. Those guys really function best as part of an aggrieved opposition.

[sunburn.livejournal.com]

It took me this long to figure out who Steve Doocy is-- I only knew the name from my 2-3 years in Fairfax VA, circa 1988-90, because "Don & Mike," the morning bozos of WAVA, somewhere around 105 on the FM dial. I think there's anotehr pairing called Don & Mike these days, but I don't think it's the same pair. All I recall was Don going off on what a tool Doocy was. And how I thought the name was amusing.