New Orleans

[mmcirvin]

By this time tomorrow, the city of New Orleans may be gone. I'm sorry I never visited. If you live there, I hope you're getting out.

Comments

[pentomino.livejournal.com]

The Jesus freaks, of course, will assume it's God's retribution. Which is politically convenient for global warming deniers.

[mmcirvin.livejournal.com]

I look forward to Pat Robertson being an ass again.

It's still possible that the storm track may veer enough that the city isn't completely flooded. But I don't think it's the way to bet at this point. This is apparently a scenario that people have been worrying about, and trying to find ways to avert, for many years, but the will to build better storm protection for the city hasn't been there. I am happy that it sounds as if there's been adequate warning and officials are taking the threat extremely seriously.

[sunburn.livejournal.com]

I look forward to Pat Robertson being an ass again.

"still."

Hopefully the city will get nothing more than a decent splash of water, enough to kick their butts into doing something more permanent. I've got friends in NO, and my dad's whole family is in Metairie and outer NO.

[sunburn.livejournal.com]

Whether New Orleans is destroyed or not isn't a global warming issue. The city is lower than it was when first founded, and walls around it are higher, to keep the river and lake ponchartrain out. It's only a matter of time before downtown NO has 25 feet of water that have nowhere to drain, and that's got nothing to do with warming or sea-levels. Whether global warming, or the climatic change to go with it, has anything to do with the likelihood of a force 4-5 hurricane hitting NO, well, I leave that to the climate scientists and their magic 8-balls of doomsaying.

[mmcirvin.livejournal.com]

That's more or less correct; there seems to be a small historic correlation between strong hurricanes and global warming, but New Orleans is a pretty special case because of its peculiar geography, and it's been long known that something like this would eventually happen.

[sunburn.livejournal.com]

I visited my Dad today-- he grew up in Metarie and remembers the last major hurricane to hit New Orleans, which was 40 years ago. (Hurricane Betsy, which was Force 3 as it passed over NO.) He was 18 and recalls driving through the streets (and seeing odd little bits of localized damage to houses-- shingles and such torn off here and there, while other houses are untouched. His childhood home, where my grandmother still lives (and who is no doubt driving one of her daughters or grandkids up the wall right now with relentless proclamations of worry, as they have evacuated) is on a formation called Metairie ridge, and there are loads of drainage canals that run through her neighborhood, including one behidn her back yard. However, my dad says, Metairie Ridge puts Metaire above sea-level, but certainly not more than about 3-5 feet above it. He said that he'd never seen so much rain, and every drop that falls on the city has to be pumped out, period. (Hence the lovely tombs.)

I also asked him why he supposes that the city's in the state it's in, and he said that while it has always been below sea level, he figures it's the dredging of the shipping lanes in the river, and the establishment of an artificial shoreline, that is pretty much levied with normal or not-much-above-normal river pressures in mind.

Dad also mentioned there's a worst-cast scenario where a powerful hurricane can pass just east(?) of the city and the hurricane's cyclonic action can cause a storm surge on the lake, throwing brackish water all over Metairie, as if the seawater in NO wouldn't be enough. I didn't get far enough in your linked article to see if that was mentioned. But. Ugh.

If the city *is* still around next week or soon thereafter, take this as a stimulus to get down there. Our amphibian pal is an excellent host and guide, and there's plenty to enjoy even (especially?) if your goal isn't drunkenness or debauchery.

P.S. Is it wrong of me to want this thing to hit Galveston instead?

[paracelsvs.livejournal.com]

Via manfire, this is quite a read: http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz062

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-
ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-
ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

[astrange.livejournal.com]

This is the only weather report I have ever seen that deserves submission to the Bulwer-Lytton Fiction Contest.

[aderack.livejournal.com]

Yeaah... I know several people scattered somewhere between there and Baton Rouge. Even talking to one by IM right now. It's only now he realizes he's never visited the historical parts of New Orleans -- even though they were right there. Probably because they were right there. Like how most New Yorkers never visit the Statue of Liberty or Empire Stare or the Twin Towers, because, hey, they'll always be handy if they feel the need to...

I'm also sorry I never visited. It would have been an adventure.

[jarai.livejournal.com]

Old Katrina and the Waves songs keep running through my head for some reason whenever I read about this hurricane.

[sunburn.livejournal.com]

Here's why. (http://www.livejournal.com/users/ambermae/106875.html)