iPod rumors

[mmcirvin]

Those low-end-iPod rumors that I was scoffing at weeks ago seem to be converging on less extravagant numbers: 2GB and 4GB "mini-iPods", smaller than the existing models, with the 2GB one somewhere in the $100 range and the 4GB one more like $200, appearing (or maybe just announced) in January so as not to cannibalize the raging Christmas demand for the bigger models.

But for these rumors to make any sense, Apple would still have to have a supplier of itty-bitty hard drives with manufacturing costs lower than we've seen so far, and, in particular, some way to make a 2GB drive cheaper than a 10GB one. Apple's all about margins on hardware, and they're not likely to sell something on which they can't make a bundle per unit. Technology marches on, though, and it's possible they've found something; the rumors tend to speak of new Toshiba drives. If they can really pull this off, they'll be in a sweet spot in which they can do tremendous volume.

I'd said that there's a gap in the product line for flash-based miniPods that work well with iTunes, but Rob Enderle's notion that the rumored models are flash-based (can't find the link at the moment) doesn't make sense unless the rumored capacities are vastly exaggerated, which is certainly possible. (Enderle's usual stock in trade is perennial buzz about Apple's imminent demise; this is one of the few times he's said anything positive about them.)

Comments

[jecook]

There is the possibility that they might be using the microdrives, which are certainly small enough to fit in an Ipod style chassis, and they do have 1,2, and 4 GB capacities. Several companies are working on rolling out devices that uses them.

As for price, I'm not sure.

[jecook]

Someone is still smoking something about the mini-pod's price, though.

One of the MP3 players that ships with a 1 GB microdrive runs about 250. Hitachi (who makes the devices) only recently came out with the 2 and 4 GB capacity drives.

the good thing is that as they are CF based, one could in theory use a flash based card instead, but retail prices for flash media in the 512 mb range are still about $100. The 1 GB microdrive by itself retails for more then $100.

[mmcirvin.livejournal.com]

Those CF-sized microdrives have been around for years (IBM sold them for a while), but they've always been unusually expensive mass storage, not unusually cheap. In the high-end digital camera market they've lost ground to big flash cards, which are regarded as more rugged and reliable, though the prices increase rapidly above half a gig or so.

I agree, something still doesn't add up here unless there's a big change brewing in the mini-hard-drive market. If the rumored 2GB Pod were supposed to have an MSRP in the $150-200 range, I'd be more inclined to believe it.

[jecook]

unusually expensive mass storage, not unusually cheap.

I'll agree to that. And they are more fragile then normal flash media.

And I don't see a huge shakedown in that market. Hitachi pretty much has the ultra-small drive market to themselves. most others are content with solid state devices.